EP 130: Workforce Planning for Small Business - How to Hire Before You’re Drowning
Series: HR Systems Series · Host: Kerri Roberts · Run time: ~28 minutes
Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dont-waste-the-chaos/id1723388520 · Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0nmxuIYEmqpbqZxzoxgiMY · Buzzsprout: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2471085
Read the full transcript below.
Episode Summary
Most small businesses hire when they’re already drowning. The role needed to exist three months ago, everyone’s burned out, and now you’re hiring under pressure — which is the worst possible time to hire well.
That’s the HR chaos cycle in miniature: reactive hiring creates desperate hiring, desperate hiring creates bad hiring decisions, and the cycle repeats. Workforce planning is the system that gets you ahead of it. It’s not just for big companies — it’s the thing that tells you when to hire before you desperately need to, even for your very first hire.
In this episode, Kerri Roberts breaks down how to assess your current capacity, how to tell whether a new hire is actually justified, how to structure roles for growth, and how to build a simple 12-month hiring roadmap. Hiring is what you do. Workforce planning is how you decide whether you’re doing it, when you’re doing it, and what role you actually need.
In This Episode
Why reactive hiring is the most expensive way to solve a problem that often has a cheaper fix
The three most common strategic hiring mistakes — starting with hiring a person instead of a role
How to tell a capacity problem from a capability problem (and why adding headcount won’t fix a skills gap)
The four signals that tell you a new hire is genuinely justified
The real math on a consultant vs. a full-time hire
The role clarity test to run before you post any job
Why you need an org chart even with five employees, plus the span-of-control “working manager” trap
The 2x Exercise for structuring roles for growth, and simple succession planning for small teams
Chapter Timestamps
0:00 Why most small businesses hire too late
2:05 HR is HR: who workforce planning is actually for
4:26 Capacity problem or capability problem?
6:40 4 signals a new hire is genuinely justified
9:48 Consultant vs. hire: running the real numbers
11:30 The role clarity test before you post a job
12:00 Structuring for growth (yes, you need an org chart)
14:17 Why a flat structure isn’t something to brag about
16:20 Span of control + the working-manager trap
17:34 The 2x Exercise, step by step
19:53 Succession planning isn’t just for big companies
22:12 SOPs, cross-training, and internal candidates
24:39 Your 12-month hiring roadmap
26:54 Where this fits in the HR Systems series
Resources Mentioned
The HR Easy Button (book): saltandlightadvisors.com/thehreasybutton — paperback, hardback, and Kindle on Amazon
HR Foundations (course, under $400): saltandlightadvisors.com/hrfoundations
HR Operating System (course): saltandlightadvisors.com/hroperatingsystem
Free Mini HR Audit (interactive quiz + score): saltandlightadvisors.com/hraudit
All strategic HR coursework: saltandlightadvisors.com/resources
Work with Kerri / book a consult: saltandlightadvisors.com/contact
Companion blog post: Workforce Planning for Small Business — saltandlightadvisors.com/blog
Tools referenced: the 2x Exercise and the RACI model (Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed)
Episodes in the HR Systems Series
This episode is part of the HR Systems Series. Earlier episodes cover the HR foundations (employer responsibilities, hiring, onboarding, HR law and compliance) and the HR operating system (performance management, leave management). This workforce planning episode kicks off the strategic stretch of the series, which continues with leadership development, how to terminate and offboard, culture, and benefits.
Your Action Item
Block 30 minutes this week and run the 2x Exercise. Draw your org chart exactly as it exists today, then draw it as if you had double your current revenue. The roles that appear in that second chart — the ones that don’t exist yet — are your next hires in priority order. Name the role, not the person. If you can’t yet name the top five outcomes that role must produce in its first 90 days, you’re not ready to hire — you’re ready to think.
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Full Transcript
Why most small businesses hire too late
Most small businesses hire when they are already drowning. The role needed to exist three months ago. Everyone’s burned out. And now you’re hiring under pressure. I just haven’t seen many great hires happen when pressure is happening. It’s the worst possible time to hire well, because we’re pushing through the process.
Workforce planning is the system that will get you ahead of that. So that’s what we’re going to get into today. We’re going to talk about reactive hiring, and how that causes desperate hiring, and how desperate hiring causes bad hiring decisions — and then the chaos cycle happens over and over again. That’s the HR chaos cycle.
Workforce planning is not just for big companies. A lot of times when we hear a more strategic process like that, we think, well, I’m not near big enough. But it’s the thing that tells you when to hire before you desperately need to. We all need that — even for your very first hire. Today we’re going to talk about how to assess your current capacity, when a new hire is actually justified, how to structure roles for growth, and how to build a simple hiring roadmap.
HR is HR: who workforce planning is actually for
Welcome back to another episode of Don’t Waste the Chaos. I’m your host, Kerri Roberts. I’ve been doing HR for over 20 years in both corporate settings and in my current capacity, an HR consulting firm. I’ve worked with organizations with over 20,000 employees, and with organizations with five. I’ve been in M&A, distribution, finance, education, insurance. My current clients range from funeral homes to coffee shops, contractors, engineering and law and finance firms. I’m all over the place, and here’s why: because HR is HR and people are people.
So many times a client will say, have you ever worked in my specific segment — a dermatology office or a med spa? Because we’re special. And I’d say, you are special. But the reality is that recruiting and retaining good people is very similar, because we’re dealing with humans. Hiring is what you actually do. Workforce planning is how you decide to do it — whether you’re doing it, when, and what role you actually need.
Here’s the pattern I see almost everywhere. A key employee leaves, or the business is growing fast. Suddenly someone’s doing two jobs. I even see job descriptions with two completely different titles on it for one person, and I’m like, this isn’t going to last. Even if the person says they like that level of power or feeling needed, it’s still not sustainable.
A lot of times the owner is exhausted, posts a job, hires whoever shows up fastest and who’s nice. Six months later they’re in the exact same position, because they didn’t hire the right person for the job, or there’s still a skills gap.
There are three most common strategic hiring mistakes. The first is hiring a person instead of a role. “I need a Sarah” is not workforce planning. “I just need another Danny” is not workforce planning. The second is hiring for pain instead of tomorrow’s need — by the time someone’s onboarded, the need has already evolved. The third is building roles around people instead of what the business needs, so job descriptions describe what one person can do, not what the business requires.
I do an exercise with clients: let’s remove all of your people from the list, and then talk about the roles, the job descriptions, and the needs. Ten times out of ten, if we remove the people, we realize we don’t have what we need — but we were thinking about who we currently have and how to make it work. It sounds kind, and it sounds bootstrappy at the very beginning. But what got you here is not what’s going to get you there.
I do an exercise with clients: let’s remove all of your people from the list, and then talk about the roles, the job descriptions, and the needs. Ten times out of ten, if we remove the people, we realize we don’t have what we need — but we were thinking about who we currently have and how to make it work. It sounds kind, and it sounds bootstrappy at the very beginning. But what got you here is not what’s going to get you there.
Capacity problem or capability problem?
The real question behind every hire is: do I have a capacity problem or a capability problem? So often we want to throw a new person at it when we really have a capability problem with our current people — we’re missing a skill set. A capacity problem is when we’ve got the right people, we just don’t have enough of them. Adding headcount does not help with a skills gap.
Underneath that is another question: is it a people problem or a systems problem? Before you hire, ask whether a documented process, better tools, better tech, or clearer expectations would solve this. Hiring is the most expensive solution to a problem that often has a cheaper fix.
In small business I also hear, “I love so-and-so, they’ve been with us for years, so we’re just going to hire another person.” That’s not the best way to handle it. You’re limiting yourself, and you’re holding your business back from the level of success it could have.
4 signals a new hire is genuinely justified
There are four signals that tell you a hire is genuinely justified, not just a reaction to a hard week.
Signal one: consistent capacity issues. Someone has been over capacity for more than 60 days. It’s not a busy season, it’s a structural problem. Measure it — track hours against deliverables. If output is consistently slipping despite full effort, that’s a capacity signal. It’s okay to be honest with the employee: we’re going to stretch it for 60 days to make sure this is a felt need and the business is there to support the hire, because I don’t want to bring someone on and then have to lay them off.
Signal two: revenue is constrained by headcount. You’re turning away work, extending timelines, or losing clients because you don’t have the people to deliver. This is the clearest justification, because the hire is going to pay for itself.
Signal three: a critical skills gap is costing you. Maybe you don’t have someone internally, or you’re outsourcing something expensively that could be internal, or you keep losing a specific capability. Build a business case: what’s the gap costing you now versus what a new hire would cost annually?
Consultant vs. hire: running the real numbers
When you look at a consultant and think that’s expensive, run it. Say I’m charging you $6,000 a month, and in three months I accomplish the work at $18,000. Compare that to hiring someone annually at $60,000 to $65,000 for a greener person — plus benefits, plus your 401(k) contribution — and if you want to cut them loose, it’s much harder than a 1099 contract. So don’t just look at the one-month number.
And this isn’t a sales pitch for a consultant, because I tell clients very often: you’re ready to hire an HR person now, and the good news is we’ve built the foundation, so you don’t need someone at my level. The systems are built, and now someone just needs to come in and produce inside the systems.
Signal four: your growth trajectory is demanding it. Look at the trends, the data, the projections. You’re growing into a need, and you want to plan the hire before the pain hits. Hiring with a 60-to-90-day runway is strategic. Hiring with a two-week runway is reactive. Folks, we can do better.
The role clarity test before you post a job
Here’s the role clarity test to run before you post any job. What are the top five outcomes this role must produce in the first 90 days? What skills are non-negotiable — they have to already have them — versus what skills are trainable? And what does success look like at the six-month mark? Put it in the job description, interview to it, and manage performance to it.
If you can’t answer those, you’re not ready to hire — you’re ready to think. If we don’t slow down, we won’t write the right job posting, the job description won’t be correct, we won’t onboard to the correct description, and we won’t be able to manage performance to it. That’s what workforce planning is all about.
Structuring for growth (yes, you need an org chart)
Most small businesses do not have an organizational structure. I’m about to sit down with a client whose HR audit surfaced that they didn’t have an org chart — and they’re kind of proud of it. That’s not something to be proud of. If you pride yourself on a flat structure, your employees don’t 100% know who’s responsible for what, how to make decisions, and who’s accountable for what and when. Your business just isn’t as effective as it could be.
What you have is a collection of people you hope all know what they’re supposed to do. And usually they say they do, because “we’re a family here.” That works until it doesn’t — and it usually stops working right when you’re growing fastest, when you take on another big client, when the timeline bumps up.
Why a flat structure isn’t something to brag about
Clear reporting lines prevent the “I didn’t know who to ask” problem. You think everyone knows, that you’re easy and approachable. I’m telling you, your new hire doesn’t feel comfortable interrupting you. You are kind and approachable — but friend, you are busy. Your employees love you and don’t want to make your life harder, so they stall on getting things done.
Defined role boundaries prevent the “it’s not my job” problem and the “everybody does everything” burnout. If everyone’s jumping in, how do we know how projects get from A to Z? A documented structure helps new hires understand how to operate from day one: where to go, who makes decisions, what to do.
The org design questions every small business should answer: Who does what role? Who decides what — who has authority, input, who’s informed? Have you heard of the RACI model? Who’s Responsible, who’s Accountable, who’s Consulted, who’s Informed. I use it often, sometimes informally, because small businesses say “we don’t need all that.” But you do. Who reports to whom?
Span of control + the working-manager trap
Best practice is a manager having five to eight employees. If you’ve got 12 direct reports, you’re dropping the ball. And what roles need to exist that don’t yet? Now we’re getting into your future structure. Here’s a warning: if one person is managing 12 people and doing their own work — a working manager — you have a structural problem, not a performance problem. But it’s going to look like a performance problem ten times out of ten. That manager is failing because the organization is set up for them to fail.
The 2x Exercise, step by step
It’s called the 2x Exercise, and it’s simple — but if you aren’t taking strategic time in your business, you’re never going to get to it. If you’re not doing strategic planning retreats — and I run those for clients as a one-time engagement, with an intake meeting, the session itself, and a follow-up, where we actually move the needle — you won’t make space for this.
Draw your org chart the way it exists today. Then draw it as if you had double your current revenue, top line or bottom line. What roles would appear that don’t exist right now so you could actually deliver at double the revenue? Those are your next hires, in priority order — team lead roles, customer success, whatever it turns out to be. It’s simple, but it takes time, thought, your whole leadership team off their cell phones, and often a moderator to help you argue through it.
Succession planning isn’t just for big companies
We can’t do workforce planning without good succession planning. Many small businesses don’t think it applies to them — that you need 50 or more employees. That’s not true. It’s uncomfortable, because we’re talking about people leaving. Sometimes you have to step out: a sick parent, an illness, a divorce, wanting to be more present as a parent, a better opportunity, going back to college. I don’t care what it is — we need to plan for it. It’s not personal.
The question is: what happens to your business if a key person leaves tomorrow — not in six months when we have time to prepare? If the answer is “we’re in serious trouble,” that’s a workforce planning problem, not a hiring problem.
Succession planning isn’t just retirement planning for large companies. It’s for any role where the loss of one person would significantly change the business. I had a marketing person up and leave me, effective immediately. She produced my podcast and did all my social media. I had no social media queued up and the podcast wasn’t getting edited. Luckily I’m agile, AI is helpful, and I found a company to outsource to — but it stung. The cool thing is I’d had every person on my team build SOPs, and that library helped me not drop any balls.
SOPs, cross-training, and internal candidates
Run a key risk assessment. What — not who — are your top three most critical roles? If any of them left tomorrow, what would break? Is there anyone internally who could step in, and at what level? And do you have documented processes so someone else could learn the role?
Three simple succession moves for small business. First, document your critical processes. If it lives in one person’s head, it’s a major risk. Second, cross-train intentionally. Give team members exposure to one another’s work. With SOPs, it takes a little longer, but you can get it done. Third, identify and develop internal candidates. Don’t wait for a crisis to find out who could grow — have those conversations in your one-on-ones. Succession isn’t about being morbid; it’s about being strategic. The businesses that have these conversations proactively are the ones that survive when a key person departs.
Your 12-month hiring roadmap
You don’t need a sophisticated workforce planning system. You need a 12-month hiring roadmap, reviewed every quarter with your leaders. Column one: roles you need in the next 12 months — name the role, not the person. Column two: the timeline — when do they need to be onboarded by? Then back into when the posting goes up. As a quick aside, from posting to an accepted offer, best practice is around 30 days. Column three: the business justification — capacity, capability, or growth signal.
Review it quarterly with one question: what changed? Did a role move up in priority? Did a new gap emerge? With AI and everything else, things change all the time. Workforce planning is a living document, not a one-time exercise.
Where this fits in the HR Systems series
You’re catching me in the middle of a series. We’ve already covered the HR foundations — employer responsibilities, hiring, onboarding, and HR law and compliance — and the HR operating system, which is performance management and leave management. This strategic piece is where we get into leadership development, workforce planning, how to terminate and offboard, culture, and benefits.
All of that coursework is at saltandlightadvisors.com/resources. You can always pick up a copy of my book — the first covers the four foundational areas, book two (in editing) covers the operating system, and book three will cover the strategic items. If you don’t know where to start, reach out at saltandlightadvisors.com/contact. Take my free Mini HR Audit at saltandlightadvisors.com/hraudit — it spits out a score, and I’ll send you a calendar link afterward. No pressure; I just want to help. So friends, don’t waste the chaos — embrace it. And I’ll see you next week.
Resources To Keep Building
If you’re about to hire under pressure, take the free HR Audit to see whether your people systems are actually set up to support a good hire before you post the job. → saltandlightadvisors.com/hraudit
📚 Explore the HR coursework — Self-paced courses, tools, and resources to build your HR systems step by step.
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